The Gilberts Spring Forecast 2026 provides an overview of the UK’s economic outlook following the government’s latest fiscal update, highlighting a period shaped by economic uncertainty, policy adjustments and global developments.
The forecast comes only a few months after the Autumn 2025 Budget, reflecting the government’s intention to move toward a single major fiscal event each year. Although the Spring Forecast does not include a full fiscal assessment from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), it still provides updated projections and a clearer picture of the UK’s economic direction.
Recent economic data suggests the UK economy continues to grow, but at a slower pace. Preliminary figures show GDP growth of 1.3% in 2025, following weak quarterly growth of just 0.1% in both the third and fourth quarters of the year. Labour market conditions have softened slightly, with unemployment reaching 5.2% in the final quarter of 2025, higher than the previous year and particularly affecting younger workers.
Inflation has remained more stable. The Consumer Prices Index stood at 3.0% in January 2026, and many forecasts expect it to move closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target later in the year. At the same time, wage growth has slowed, with average weekly earnings increasing by 4.2% annually in late 2025.
The OBR has slightly revised its outlook for the coming years. Economic growth for 2026 is now projected at 1.1%, down from earlier expectations. Inflation for the same year is forecast to average 2.3%, reflecting easing price pressures and policy measures affecting areas such as energy prices and rail fares.
From a public finance perspective, the government’s fiscal headroom has increased modestly to £23.6 billion by 2029/30, although borrowing remains high and economic forecasts remain sensitive to global developments.
Geopolitical tensions also present a potential risk. Conflict in the Middle East has already influenced energy markets, with oil prices rising above the assumptions used in the forecast. This underlines the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook ahead of the next Budget later this year.
This summary highlights the key themes shaping the UK’s economic outlook. For a deeper analysis of the forecasts, fiscal projections and potential implications for businesses and individuals.
